Manuel Pellegrini: Manchester City's manager under pressure

 

Manchester City are facing the sobering prospect of finishing fourth in what was meant to be a two-horse title race - a position they might even sign up for now after their latest damaging defeat at Crystal Palace.

The reigning Premier League champions will surely forget any notions of retaining their trophy after the loss at Selhurst Park left a gap of nine points between City and leaders Chelsea, who have a game in hand and only eight matches to play.
Just a few weeks ago all logic pointed to a straight fight between City and Chelsea with the trailing pack looking on from the sidelines. Now City must prioritise the top four and cannot yet do that with any sense of certainty.

City are now in fourth place, seven points ahead of Liverpool and with a vastly superior goal difference of +33 to +9, which is as good as an extra point - but whereas they face a testing derby trip to Manchester United on Sunday, Brendan Rodgers side have an eminently winnable home game against Newcastle United 25 hours later. It may yet get tense.
The idea of even holding a conversation about City's Champions League hopes was unthinkable a few weeks ago - but consecutive away losses to Liverpool, Burnley and Palace have altered the landscape.
So how has it come to this?

No Champions League - The Unthinkable

Manchester City's owners do not just want them in the Champions League - they want the club established there. There have been no unrealistic demands to win Europe's elite club trophy in quick time, although that particular return on their investment has been disappointing, going out at the last-16 stage again to Barcelona this season.
Given the infrastructure and open ambition of the Sky Blues, the idea of not actually competing in the tournament next season is unthinkable.
Such are the vast riches of City's Abu Dhabi hierarchy, the loss of financial revenue from competing in the Champions League would be cushioned more comfortably than for most but it would still be a devastating blow to profile and pride.

There will be changes anyway at City in the summer but such a setback could accelerate the process on all levels, including managerial, where Manuel Pellegrini would surely struggle to survive such a failure.
Yaya Toure may go anyway but how would the likes of Sergio Aguero and David Silva, both on long and lucrative contracts it should be stressed, react to being out of the Champions League? The Sky Blues, at least, have the financial firepower and burning ambition to reassure players of such stature that it would be a temporary absence.
The good news for City is that they still have a healthy lead over Liverpool and the ability within the squad to dig out the results they need in their remaining seven games, which include winnable home games against West Ham United, Aston Villa, QPR and Southampton - although there are away trips to United, Swansea and Spurs which look hazardous.
City are still in prime position for a top four place. Anything else would be catastrophic.

The Reliables become unreliable

Manchester City's recent years of success have been built around the powerhouse provided by the spine of goalkeeper Joe Hart, captain and defensive pivot Vincent Kompany, Yaya Youre and the world-class attacking talent of Sergio Aguero.
Hart has maintained his form this season but the form of Kompany and Toure, while both have had injuries, has dipped alarmingly to the point where the captain and symbol of their title wins was dropped to the bench against Leicester City recently



The future without the giant Ivorian has been an open subject for discussion, with former manager Roberto Mancini possibly luring him to Serie A with Inter Milan.
Kompany has been culpable in many City defeats, particularly at Liverpool, while Toure's imperious power - despite scoring in the 2-1 defeat at Palace - has dwindled to the point where he has been outmanoeuvred by opponents who would not get near him in his pomp.
This time last season Toure had played 35 games and scored 20 goals. This year he has made 23 appearances with just eight goals. The contrast is telling.
Toure is 32 next month, his finest years behind him. He has been outstanding for City but it may make sense to cash in now if that big offer arrives.
Aguero continues to be a threat but has failed to recapture his finest form since suffering a knee injury against Everton in early December. It is no coincidence that these narrow away defeats have come at a time when the Argentine's sharpness has been blunted.
He was unlucky to hit the post in the first half against Palace but it is now six games and 556 minutes since he last scored, against Barcelona in the Champions League. City have also lost seven of 14 games since 10 January, and three successively in the league for the first time since 2011.

Will Manuel Pellegrini keep his job?

Manchester City's owners have done wonderful work in and around the local community and have unveiled the landmark Etihad Campus as testimony to their long-term intentions and desire for stability - but the bottom line is success on the pitch.
When Roberto Mancini failed to follow up winning the title he was sacked, his confrontational approach replaced by the more "holistic" style of the Chilean Pellegrini. City's hierarchy do not want to be seen as operating any sort of revolving door managerial policy, but with high ambitions comes high expectation.
If City finished outside the top four it is difficult to see how Pellegrini could stay. If they finish in the top four he may still be in peril because of the jaded, uninspired manner of so many performances this season.
While suggesting the sacking of Pellegrini is the easy part, locating the replacement is more difficult.